Perth Amboy, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

495
FXUS61 KPHI 292326
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
726 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation section has been updated for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A warming trend in temperatures is expected through tomorrow.
A few showers or thunderstorms possible again Tuesday.

2. Dangerous heat and humidity will build over the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic Wednesday through Saturday. All time record
high temperatures could be challenged Thursday and Friday.

3. There is the potential for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms starting on Friday and lasting into the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend in temperatures is expected
through tomorrow. A few showers or thunderstorms possible again
Tuesday.

A strengthening ridge of high pressure to our west will result
in a warming trend in temperatures through tomorrow. Highs will
end up closer to 90 degrees for some areas by tomorrow. With a
lack of low level moisture return locally until late Tuesday,
dewpoints are anticipated to mix out tomorrow afternoon. So
although it`ll be quite warm, humidity won`t be too oppressive
until the heat ramps up on Wednesday. Lows in the 60s.

Any lingering showers early this evening will continue to taper
off through the evening hours. By Tuesday afternoon and
evening, we could get some MCSs coming into our region out of
the Great Lakes region amid the northwesterly flow aloft.
Greatest chances of any thunderstorms will be focused mainly
north of the Philly metro. Details on this activity remains to
be seen, but will be something to monitor. It is possible
convection remains mainly north of our area, and latest guidance
trends have shifted northward compared to models earlier today.
Damaging winds would be the main threat with any thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat and humidity will build over the
Northeast and Mid Atlantic Wednesday through Saturday. All time
record high temperatures could be challenged Thursday and
Friday.

Strong mid-level ridging will develop over the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley early this week. Ridging will then build eastward
into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic by Wednesday and persist
into the holiday weekend. A west to southwest flow on Wednesday
will shift more west to northwest by Friday. The ridge will
finally start to break and retreat some starting Saturday into
Sunday.

High temperatures will climb into the mid and upper 90s on
Wednesday, and then from 100 to 105 degrees on Thursday and
Friday. With a south to southwest flow on Wednesday, dewpoints
are less likely to mix out significantly in the afternoon.
Resulting heat indices are forecast to range mainly from around
100-105 degrees. By Thursday and especially Friday, the shift
to a more west or northwest flow will allow for better mixing
out of dewpoints during the afternoon, and also a component of
downsloping (adiabatic warming) from the Appalachians. This will
support temperatures climbing above 100 degrees as dewpoints
mix out into the mid 60s during the afternoon hours. Resulting
forecast heat indices are mostly in the 105-110 degree range.
This is indeed the type of synoptic pattern that could challenge
all time record high temperatures in our region. See the
Climate section below for more information on record
temperatures.

Temperatures will abate somewhat on Saturday as the ridge begins
to break and retreat. However, high temperatures will still be
in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. The prevailing flow
direction will dictate how much mixing out of dewpoints occur
on Saturday. Currently, we have upper 60s to near 70 degree
dewpoints, which results in 100-105 degree heat indices, locally
as much as 110 degree for areas that don`t mix out. Highs will
remain in the low to mid 90s Sunday and Monday as well, with
heat indices still in the mid 90s to low 100s. So we certainly
could see heat related impacts continuing beyond Saturday
despite a slight improvement in temperatures.

The Extreme Heat Watch has been expanded to encompass the
remainder of our forecast area. For our central and northern
zones, it begins Wednesday, while further south, it begins
Thursday, with this being mainly due to the higher criteria in
our southern zones. We may at some point add a heat advisory for
Wednesday for the southern zones.

The mid-level ridge will break and retrograde back towards the
south and west on Saturday, and a mid-level trough will try to
slide down into the Northeast. This pattern change will begin to
favor slightly cooler temperatures and a break in the extreme
heat by Sunday or Monday, as well as the potential for showers
and thunderstorms next weekend (see Key Message 3 below).


KEY MESSAGE 3...There is the potential for afternoon and
evening thunderstorms starting on Friday and lasting into the
holiday weekend.

The mid-level ridge looks to break down and retrograde back to
the south and west starting on Friday, and this will allow mid-
level troughiness to develop over the Northeast. With several
shortwaves riding over the top of the ridge and into the local
area, this may touch off afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms starting on Friday, but the better chances for
convection arrive on Saturday and Sunday. Currently, PoPs are
around 20-30% on Friday and 30-50% on Saturday and Sunday.

While details of this activity won`t become clear until later
this week, it is important to point out that any holiday
weekend festivities could be impacted by thunderstorms (in
addition to the extreme heat). The environmental setup would be
favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms, if any storms do
develop. We`ll continue to monitor this potential.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...There is a low chance of patchy fog developing
tonight. Due to the low confidence and patchy nature of any fog
development, no restrictions were put in the TAFs. Otherwise,
VFR. Winds becoming light/variable overnight. Low confidence in
fog, high confidence otherwise.

Tuesday...VFR. Winds shifting south-southwest and increasing
with gusts up around 20 kts in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Friday...VFR. Low chance (20%) of a
thunderstorm Tuesday and Friday, otherwise no significant
weather.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine hazards are forecast through most of Tuesday.
Northeast to east winds 5-10 kts, shifting southerly by
Tuesday. Seas 1-3 feet, increasing to 2-4 feet Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Friday...Overall, no marine hazards are
forecast. Cannot rule out a brief period of southerly 25+ kt
gusts or seas approaching 5 feet late Tuesday and/or Wednesday
afternoon, mainly north of Atlantic City.

Rip Currents...

For Tuesday, southerly winds increase to 15 to 20 mph with breaking
waves in the surf zone around 2-3 feet. There will also be multiple
swell groups and we`ll only be one day removed from today`s Full
Moon. For these reasons, we`ll go with a MODERATE risk of dangerous
rip currents for coastal Ocean County south through Cape May County
along the NJ shore. For coastal Monmouth County and the Delaware
Beaches we`ll continue with a LOW risk.

For Wednesday, similar conditions to Tuesday can be expected so
we`ll continue to go with a MODERATE risk of dangerous rip currents
for coastal Ocean County south through Cape May County along the NJ
shore. And for coastal Monmouth County and the Delaware Beaches
we`ll continue with a LOW risk.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record breaking heat is forecast from Wednesday through
Saturday. Temperature records for our climate sites are listed
below:

All Time Record High Temperatures

Site                  Record / Date
Allentown (ABE)          105 / July 3, 1966
AC Airport (ACY)         106 / June 28, 1969
AC Marina (55N)          104 / August 7, 1918
Georgetown (GED)         104 / July 22 & 23, 2011
Mount Pocono (MPO)       103 / July 3, 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)       106 / August 7, 1918
Reading (RDG)            106 / July 22, 2011
Trenton (TTN)            106 / July 9, 1936 & July 22, 2011
Wilmington (ILG)         107 / August 7, 1918

All Time Record Warmest Low Temperatures

Site                  Record / Date
Allentown (ABE)           79 / July 15, 1995
AC Airport (ACY)          84 / July 23, 2011
AC Marina (55N)           82 / July 21, 2019
Georgetown (GED)          84 / July 23, 2011
Mount Pocono (MPO)        76 / July 12, 1952
Philadelphia (PHL)        83 / July 24, 2010 & July 23, 2011
Reading (RDG)             81 / August 7, 1918
Trenton (TTN)             84 / August 11, 1895
Wilmington (ILG)          84 / August 7, 1918

Record Number of Consecutive 100+ Degree Days

Site                  Record / Date
Allentown (ABE)       3 days / July 9-11, 1936 & July 2-4, 1966
AC Airport (ACY)      3 days / July 2-4, 1966 & July 22-24, 2011
AC Marina (55N)        1 day / Occurred multiple times
Georgetown (GED)      2 days / Most recent June 24-25, 2025
Mount Pocono (MPO)     1 day / July 3, 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)    3 days / July 2-4, 1966 & July 8-10, 1993
Reading (RDG)         3 days / Most recent July 21-23, 2011
Trenton (TTN)         3 days / Most recent July 21-23, 2011
Wilmington (ILG)      3 days / Most recent July 9-11, 1936

Record High Temperatures
                          July 1
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)           98 / 2018
AC Airport (ACY)          99 / 1968
AC Marina (55N)           98 / 1968
Georgetown (GED)          99 / 2012
Mount Pocono (MPO)        88 / 1963, 1964, 1968, & 2018
Philadelphia (PHL)       102 / 1901
Reading (RDG)            101 / 1901
Trenton (TTN)             98 / 1898, 1901, & 1945
Wilmington (ILG)          97 / 1931 & 1963

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
                          July 1
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)           74 / 1930
AC Airport (ACY)          77 / 1945
AC Marina (55N)           79 / 1945
Georgetown (GED)          76 / 1945
Mount Pocono (MPO)        67 / 1946, 1971, 2013, 2017, 2025
Philadelphia (PHL)        82 / 1901
Reading (RDG)             76 / 1968
Trenton (TTN)             77 / 1945
Wilmington (ILG)          75 / 2013

Record High Temperatures
                          July 2
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)          102 / 1966
AC Airport (ACY)         100 / 1966
AC Marina (55N)           97 / 1968
Georgetown (GED)          99 / 1953
Mount Pocono (MPO)        93 / 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)       103 / 1901
Reading (RDG)            102 / 1966
Trenton (TTN)            100 / 1901
Wilmington (ILG)          98 / 1941 & 1966

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
                          July 2
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)           75 / 2013
AC Airport (ACY)          79 / 2002
AC Marina (55N)           76 / 2012
Georgetown (GED)          77 / 1959
Mount Pocono (MPO)        70 / 1903
Philadelphia (PHL)        82 / 1901
Reading (RDG)             79 / 1901
Trenton (TTN)             79 / 1901
Wilmington (ILG)          75 / 1941 & 2014

Record High Temperatures
                          July 3
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)          105 / 1966
AC Airport (ACY)         104 / 1966
AC Marina (55N)           99 / 1919
Georgetown (GED)         101 / 1954
Mount Pocono (MPO)       103 / 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)       104 / 1966
Reading (RDG)            103 / 1898 & 1966
Trenton (TTN)            102 / 1966
Wilmington (ILG)         102 / 1966

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
                          July 3
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)           75 / 2018
AC Airport (ACY)          78 / 2018
AC Marina (55N)           76 / 1983, 2002, & 2018
Georgetown (GED)          79 / 1953
Mount Pocono (MPO)        69 / 2013
Philadelphia (PHL)        77 / 1876, 1901, &2002
Reading (RDG)             76 / 2018
Trenton (TTN)             76 / 1901 & 1966
Wilmington (ILG)          76 / 2002

Record High Temperatures
                          July 4
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)          102 / 1949
AC Airport (ACY)         102 / 1966
AC Marina (55N)           99 / 1966
Georgetown (GED)         100 / 1966
Mount Pocono (MPO)        99 / 1911
Philadelphia (PHL)       103 / 1966
Reading (RDG)            100 / 1911 & 1966
Trenton (TTN)             99 / 1919, 1999, & 2010
Wilmington (ILG)         102 / 1966

Record Warmest Low Temperatures
                          July 4
Site                  Record / Year
Allentown (ABE)           75 / 1999
AC Airport (ACY)          75 / 1974, 1983, 1999, & 2002
AC Marina (55N)           79 / 2002
Georgetown (GED)          75 / 1999 & 2012
Mount Pocono (MPO)        70 / 2002 & 2013
Philadelphia (PHL)        79 / 1919
Reading (RDG)             78 / 1966
Trenton (TTN)             78 / 1966
Wilmington (ILG)          76 / 1999

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NJZ001-007>010-012>020-027.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for NJZ021>026.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NJZ001-
     007>010-012>015.
DE...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for DEZ001.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for DEZ002>004.
MD...Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPS/RCM/Staarmann
AVIATION...Guzzo/MPS/RCM/Staarmann
MARINE...AKL/Fitzsimmons/MPS/RCM/Staarmann